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Il topic dell'offseason 2022
joker:
Ho deciso di inaugurare questo topic dove parleremo di tutto ciò che accadrà durante il periodo che da da adesso all'inizio della prox stagione. Per dare qualche spunto di riflessione ho postato un articolo direttamente da The athletic
Kirk Cousins in Denver? Matt Ryan in Cleveland? What about Rodgers and Russ? 10 (mostly) bold NFL offseason predictions
With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror, it’s time to turn our attention to what could be a wild 2022 NFL offseason. Last year, we saw Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold get traded. The San Francisco 49ers aggressively traded up in the first round of the draft to select Trey Lance. And stars like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson voiced displeasure with the teams that drafted them.
So what will the 2022 offseason bring us? Below are some bold and not-so-bold predictions about how it will all play out.
1. Aaron Rodgers returns to the Green Bay Packers
Rodgers has said he won’t keep everyone waiting long before announcing his plans for 2022. Given that we’re talking about the back-to-back MVP here, it should go without saying that Rodgers’ decision will have a domino effect on what else we see this offseason.
So what’s the case for him staying? It’s simple: Green Bay offers Rodgers the best chance to win another Super Bowl and to pile up more personal accolades.
That might sound strange, given that he’s been there for 17 years and “only” has one championship. But winning the Super Bowl is hard. It’s about being in the mix as often as possible and hoping that eventually the luck and randomness will fall your way. The Indianapolis Colts won one title in 13 years with Peyton Manning. The New England Patriots went nine seasons from 2005 to 2013 without winning a Super Bowl, and that was with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
The Packers have gone an NFL-best 39-10 in the regular season over the past three years. They’ve been in the NFC Championship twice. They haven’t gotten over the hump, but their window has not closed. They just need to keep knocking on the door.
Green Bay has some salary cap challenges. But Rodgers has a coach he knows well in Matt LaFleur, a true No. 1 wide receiver in Davante Adams (assuming the Packers bring him back) and an offensive line that continues to perform at a high level. If he sticks in the NFC, he’ll be in a conference that is wide open — especially as things currently stand with both Brady and Sean Payton gone. Rodgers would also be in a division where the Packers would be overwhelming favorites.
Maybe following Nathaniel Hackett to Denver would be appealing to Rodgers. But that would mean battling Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert for the division. Add in Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and others if we’re talking about the conference. At 38 years old, is he really looking for a more difficult path to a title?
I don’t know what motivates Rodgers at this stage of his life. Maybe it goes beyond football, and the thought of trying out something new is appealing to him. Or maybe he’ll sit back and decide he just wants to retire. But if it’s about having another chance at a title and/or continuing to add to an all-time individual career, Green Bay still seems like the most attractive option.
2. Russell Wilson returns to the Seattle Seahawks
These are going to get bolder down the list — I promise!
Wilson’s situation is different from Rodgers’. As my colleagues reported last year, Wilson and Pete Carroll have not seen eye-to-eye when it comes to the Seahawks’ offensive philosophy. Seattle is coming off of a 7-10 season and has not advanced past the divisional round since 2014.
Wilson has — at least in the past — seen other quarterbacks with elite pass protection and shiny offensive schemes and wondered how he might perform under similar circumstances.
But from a Seahawks perspective, it’s tough to see the motivation in trading Wilson right now. Was last year bumpy? Yes. But would you believe that the Seahawks finished eighth overall in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric? They were seventh on offense. And that was during a season in which Wilson missed three games.
The Seahawks have now finished top-eight in offensive DVOA in eight of 10 seasons with Wilson. They’ve never been lower than 16th. This is what every team is chasing — or at least should be chasing. Offensive efficiency leads to sustained success. It doesn’t guarantee Super Bowls. But it puts you in the mix.
In terms of individual performance, Wilson has had ups and downs over the past two seasons. But the bottom line is that with him, regardless of the offensive line or coordinator or supporting cast, the Seahawks have pretty much always had an efficient offense. Even if it feels a little stale, is now really the time to give that up and chase something else?
Carroll turns 71 in September. Wilson is 33 and under contract for two more years. The Seahawks still have Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf as viable weapons. And like the Packers, they’re in a conference with no clear favorite for 2022.
Maybe Wilson’s frustrations will boil over and the Seahawks will be blown away by a trade offer. But more likely, there will be rumors and drama that eventually die down, and they’ll run it back with Wilson in 2022.
3. The Colts trade Carson Wentz to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
You don’t have to look hard for clues that Colts owner Jim Irsay was frustrated with year one of the Wentz experience.
The Athletic’s Zak Keefer did an excellent job of breaking down the Wentz situation. One nugget, per Keefer: Wentz’s decision to remain unvaccinated and leave himself more susceptible to miss games did not sit well with Irsay.
If you look just at the statistics, Wentz’s 2021 performance wasn’t that bad. He threw 27 touchdowns to seven interceptions and finished 16th in TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) per play model. But the same issues that have dogged him for much of his career — erratic accuracy, poor decision-making and an inability to convert the layup throws — continued to show up on film.
The idea of running it back with Wentz and hoping for the best can’t be appealing to Irsay, given that the franchise has one playoff win in the past seven seasons. And if Irsay is ready to move on, are Frank Reich and Chris Ballard really going to fight him, given how last season ended?
Sometimes, the biggest mistakes organizations make occur when they fail to admit that something’s just not working out. The Colts gave up a first- and a third-round pick for Wentz. They were hoping he could be a long-term answer for them. But now they have an additional season’s worth of information that probably has them feeling differently.
It’s tough to know what kind of trade market Wentz would have at this point. But the Bucs obviously have a need with Brady retiring. As The Athletic’s Greg Auman pointed out, Bruce Arians said in 2017 (yes, that was a long time ago!) that he was a big fan of Wentz.
“I loved him coming out. He reminded me a lot of Andrew Luck,” Arians said. “He’s big, strong, and physical. He played in a pro offense. He had that linebacker mentality playing quarterback. It shows up, his toughness.”
Wentz has a salary of $22 million ($15 million guaranteed) in 2022, along with a $6.3 million roster bonus. He’s under contract through 2024 but has no guarantees beyond next season. In other words, if things go well, great. You get him for three years. If things go terribly, you’re not tied to him. You can move on after one season.
Predicting compensation for quarterbacks is always difficult. Usually, it ends up being more than anticipated. The New York Jets received three picks, including a second-rounder, from the Carolina Panthers for Sam Darnold. But Darnold was coming from a terrible situation, was on a less expensive contract, and the Panthers were desperate.
A third- or a fourth-round pick might be more realistic for Wentz, and it’s entirely possible that he won’t even be able to fetch that much. Teams will have to wonder: If Reich, who put his reputation on the line for Wentz, is willing to give up on him after one year, why should we believe we can get something better out of him?
4. The San Francisco 49ers trade Jimmy Garoppolo to the Washington Commanders
Last offseason, Washington signed Ryan Fitzpatrick to a one-year deal, but he played in just one game for them before suffering an injury. Trading for Garoppolo could serve as a similar one-year band-aid solution. He would be under contract in 2022 for roughly $25.6 million. Garoppolo has his flaws, but he’s well-liked by teammates, and his teams have gone 33-14 when he’s been the starter.
It’s entirely possible that Garoppolo’s play would slip when removed from Kyle Shanahan and a strong supporting cast in San Francisco. But he should offer a relatively high floor. And that could be meaningful for a Washington franchise that has won just two playoff games in 23 seasons under Daniel Snyder.
The hope would be that Garoppolo could offer competence in 2022 while the franchise looks for a longer term solution via the draft or other avenues. And if Garoppolo happens to light it up, well, then Washington can think about keeping him around beyond next season
As for the 49ers, they can create roughly $25.6 million in cap space by trading Garoppolo, acquire draft capital and move forward with Lance.
Again, projecting compensation can be tricky, but perhaps something like a conditional third-round pick that can turn into a second would make sense. If Washington really likes Garoppolo and doesn’t have many other options, maybe something similar to the Darnold deal (a second, fourth and a sixth) would be in play.
5. The Steelers sign Marcus Mariota and draft a QB
There’s no obvious answer for how the Steelers should move forward in the post-Ben Roethlisberger era. Their best option could be to take a couple swings and see what connects.
Mike Tomlin has seemed intrigued by the idea of having a more mobile quarterback, and despite Mariota’s flaws, he could offer that. When Mariota was last a free agent, he signed a two-year deal worth $17.6 million. Even that got negotiated down during his second season with the Las Vegas Raiders. In other words, he’s going to be much less expensive than many of the other options out there.
Roethlisberger finished 28th out of 35 quarterbacks in EPA per play last season. The Steelers wouldn’t need Mariota to be great. They would just need him to be relatively competent.
Meanwhile, they could use a draft pick on someone like Liberty’s Malik Willis and let him sit for a year if necessary. If Mariota surprises and plays well, that’s a nice outcome. If he doesn’t, they have another option.
In any event, it will be fun to see how Mike Tomlin manages to go 9-8 or better regardless of who’s playing quarterback.
6. The Minnesota Vikings trade Kirk Cousins to the Denver Broncos
Dear Denver, I love your city, but given my predictions in this piece, I completely understand if I am not allowed back for a while. Look forward to seeing you down the road. Be well.
The Broncos’ Plan A couldn’t be any more obvious. They would love to take a big swing on Rodgers. Basically everything they’ve done over the past year or so has set them up for that. And if Rodgers does want out of Green Bay, the Broncos have to be considered the heavy favorites to land him, given the Hackett connection, their available resources and the state of their roster.
But what’s Plan B?
The Broncos have a couple of connections to Cousins. One, general manager George Paton was in Minnesota with him. And two, Klint Kubiak is now their passing game coordinator/quarterbacks coach. Kubiak was the Vikings’ quarterbacks coach in 2019 and 2020 and their offensive coordinator last season. The Broncos — for better or worse — have more intel on Cousins than pretty much any team in the NFL.
Having said that, there’s no way a team is trading for Cousins on his current contract, which carries a salary of $35 million for 2022. Two issues would need to be resolved before the Vikings could trade Cousins. One, how much of Cousins’ salary would the Vikings be willing to eat (in the form of a signing bonus) to trade him? And two, what type of draft compensation would a team be willing to give up to acquire Cousins?
The two questions are connected. If the Vikings were willing to pay, say, $25 million (not happening, just an extreme example to explain the point) of Cousins’ salary, and the new team was on the hook for just $10 million in 2022, well now all of a sudden he becomes more attractive, and a team might be willing to give up significant draft capital. Meanwhile, if the Vikings refused to pay any of the $35 million, well, now nobody’s going to give up even a conditional seventh.
The question becomes: Is there a middle ground that would make sense for both parties? If the Vikings were to pay $10 to $15 million, would a team give up a second-round pick for Cousins? Probably.
Trading for Cousins wouldn’t preclude the Broncos from looking at a QB in the draft. They could do both. If Cousins plays well in 2022, they could consider extending him. If not, they’d have another option with the player they drafted.
The truth is the Vikings are in a tough spot with no great solution. Cousins has a $45 million cap hit for 2022. They could try to extend him, but that’s not going to be cheap. Do they really want to tie more money to Cousins? They could play out 2022 with Cousins on his current deal and see where they are at the end of the year. Or they could take their medicine now, move on, acquire a pick or two, sign a low-cost veteran like Teddy Bridgewater and look to draft a quarterback who can be a longer-term solution.
The Athletic’s Chad Graff put the chances of a Cousins trade at 25%.
7. The Atlanta Falcons trade Matt Ryan to the Cleveland Browns
Be honest. At the beginning of this column, you were thinking: These aren’t very bold. Now you’re thinking: How many beers did Sheil have before coming up with these?
Let’s be clear here: The most likely scenario is that the Falcons don’t trade Ryan. Having said that, I think sometimes we get confused about what “dead money” means when it comes to NFL contracts. Simply put, it’s money that gets charged to a team’s salary cap for a player who’s no longer on the roster. It is bad business to waste cap space on players who are not playing. You don’t need an economics degree to understand that.
But the way teams view dead money now is different than it was five or 10 years ago. Take the Eagles, for example. They traded Wentz last year and incurred the largest dead cap hit in NFL history: $33.8 million. Why? Because Wentz wanted to move on, the Eagles decided they were fine moving on, and they were receiving significant draft capital in return.
Which brings us to Ryan. According to OverTheCap.com, he would carry a dead cap hit of $40.5 million if the Falcons traded him. That would overtake the Wentz hit as the biggest in NFL history. But there’s always going to be a price that makes incurring a hit like that worth it — specifically if you don’t have much use for the player. If a team offered the Falcons their next three drafts for Ryan, would Atlanta take the dead cap hit and do that deal? Of course! That’s an extreme example, but hopefully you get the point.
So what’s the theoretical deal that would at least make the Falcons not hang up the phone? If a team offered the same deal that the Eagles took for Wentz — a conditional second that could turn into a first, plus a third — would that be enough?
Ryan was up and down last year and finished the season 24th in EPA per play. The Falcons’ offense finished 28th in DVOA. They had one of the worst pass-blocking offensive lines in the NFL, traded Julio Jones before the season and got Calvin Ridley for just five games. The Falcons have one of the worst cap situations in the league. They are going to need to build methodically through the draft. Trading Ryan would free up roughly $8 million in cap space for 2022. They could use that money to sign a low-cost bridge option at quarterback if they need to and then explore the draft for a longer-term option.
The Browns are in a tough spot. They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and one of the best overall rosters. Given how last season played out, coming back and just handing the keys to Baker Mayfield feels like it would be a mistake. If a player like Wilson actually became available, the Browns should be at the front of the line to land him. That would elevate them to legit contender.
And it’s possible that they’d view someone like Cousins or Derek Carr as a significant upgrade.
Ryan turns 37 in May. The Browns would have to convince themselves that he’s still capable of offering a couple years of high-level play if surrounded by a better supporting cast. Ryan’s contract is not bad for a team that wants to acquire him. It’s roughly $25.9 million per year for the next two seasons with no money guaranteed.
Why do I have a feeling I’m going to get crushed by both Browns fans and Falcons fans for this idea? Let’s just move on.
8. The Las Vegas Raiders trade Carr to the Colts
Carr is entering the final year of his deal. The NFL Network reported that the Raiders are prepared to offer him an extension. But that could be a tricky negotiation. The market for quality starters now generally falls in the $35 million to $40 million per year range. Would the Raiders, who just hired coach Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler, be willing to make that type of commitment to Carr right away?
Another option would be to gauge the trade market. And if they found a deal they liked, they could acquire a couple picks and look for a long-term quarterback option in the draft.
Carr has just one year left on his deal for $19.8 million. As far as quarterback contracts go, that’s a bargain.
If the Colts move on from Wentz, it seems like their goal will be to find a replacement who can help them win right now. Maybe someone else like Cousins or Ryan or Garoppolo would make sense. But Carr will be just 31 at the start of next season. He’s demonstrated strong leadership skills with the Raiders, and he’s been durable (hasn’t missed a regular-season start in the past four years). The Colts could see how he fits in 2022, and if things work out, they could sign him to a long-term deal.
The Los Angeles Rams sent two firsts, a third and Jared Goff to the Detroit Lions for Stafford. But the extra first was so the Lions would take on Goff’s contract. Would the Colts be willing to trade a 2023 first (they don’t have their first this year) to land Carr?
9. The Eagles add a QB to compete with or replace Jalen Hurts
The Eagles were a feel-good story last season. They went 9-8 and made the playoffs. But it’s fair to wonder whether GM Howie Roseman and owner Jeffrey Lurie watched the rest of the postseason unfold and thought: We’re not close to competing with those teams.
Lurie and Roseman have long (correctly) believed that an efficient and explosive passing game is the key to sustained success. Last year, Nick Sirianni’s offense morphed into a run-heavy attack. It was a great example of a head coach adapting to his personnel. But the question is: Can that type of offense be sustainable in the long run? And are the Eagles really willing to commit to it?
The Eagles are 31-33-1 since they won the Super Bowl. They’ve been living in the middle tier of the NFL — better than the bad teams, but not in the same class as the really good teams. They’ve gone four consecutive seasons without fielding a team that’s finished in the top eight in DVOA. The last time that happened for them was 1997 to 2000.
This prediction is purposely vague because the Eagles could go in a number of different directions. They have three first-round picks. If someone like Wilson were to become available, they would surely at least inquire. Or maybe they fall in love with someone like Willis or Kenny Pickett in the draft.
Hurts exceeded expectations last year and finished 17th in EPA per play. If we remove scrambles, he drops down to 23rd. To sit tight and roll with Hurts as the unquestioned starter in 2022, the Eagles would have to be convinced that he can make major strides as a passer.
Last offseason was about setting themselves up for this offseason. Maybe the Eagles feel like Hurts can improve, and they’ll let him have 2022, and then see where they’re at this time next year. They could even try to trade back in this year’s draft to acquire picks for 2023. That would be a perfectly reasonable option.
But given the resources they currently have available, it would be no surprise to see them opt for a more aggressive path in the months ahead. Whether it’s via trade or the use of a first-round pick, the guess here is that the first two names on the quarterback depth chart won’t be Hurts and Gardner Minshew going into Week 1 of next season.
10. Tom Brady unretires and is on an NFL roster in Week 1
C’mon! You knew this one was coming! Brady set the all-time record for shortest amount of time between an athlete retiring and everyone assuming he was going to come back.
The reason his retirement is so hard to believe is because he was just so freakin’ good last year. He finished fifth in EPA per play during the regular season. That was ahead of guys like Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. It’s just so rare to see a quarterback who is still playing that well call it quits, especially one who is as maniacally competitive as Brady.
I can respect Brady wanting to spend more time with his kids, but soon he will learn what the rest of us know: They’re in school for most of the day, and when they get home, they want to play Sneaky Sasquatch on their iPads, watch TV and generally ignore their parents.
Plus, it’s not like this needs to be a huge commitment. Brady can work out when the kids are in school, take vacations with them in June and July, sign with a team in training camp, go through a seven-month season and then rejoin everyone in February for the rest of his life — potentially with one more ring on his finger.
My colleague Mike Sando (and others) have brought up the idea of the 49ers as a potential suitor, and until Lance is on the field in Week 1, that feels like the Brady rumor that’s not going away. So does it make sense?
All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams will be 34 at the start of next season. Center Alex Mack will be 36. Players like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are in their primes. Put simply: This is a team that’s built to contend for a title right now. Brady might not seem like the perfect fit for Shanahan’s scheme, but they’re both bright guys. It might take a little time, but they’d be able to figure it out.
Maybe it won’t be the 49ers. What if a team with a loaded roster sees its starting quarterback suffer an injury in the spring or summer? They’d at least have to call Brady, right?
It’s entirely possible that Brady will be perfectly content enjoying retirement. Maybe he’s the rare athlete who is willing to say goodbye even when he’s still near the top of his profession. But him waking up one day, surveying the NFC landscape and deciding that he wants to chase one more ring shouldn’t shock anyone.
joker:
Sulle prime 9 non lo so ma sulla 10 sarei pronto a scommettere :okoks:
Piergiu74:
Ho letto che a Tampa sarebbero pronti a un all in su Watson.
Cousins lo vedo anche io partente e Jimmy G non sarebbe male a Washington.
Carr secondo me non si muove perchè McDaniels pare sia un suo fan e parlano già di rinnovi...
Brady l'unico posto dove potrebbe andare con un senso sarebbe o la citata Denver o i Saints...gli Steelers non so se sarebbero così stupidi
Jack The Sack:
le prime 9 al limite della boutade, ma la 10 ...
joker:
The biggest offseason needs for all 32 NFL teams and how teams can fill them via the draft, trades and free agents
Every NFL season reveals teams’ potential and limitations, successes and failures. And it also reveals every team’s needs, even for the best teams.
Some teams know their needs yet seem to take years to fill them, especially if it’s the pursuit of a quarterback. Others, like the Kansas City Chiefs and their offensive line transition from 2020 to 2021, fill them in less than six months.
With 2021 season complete and the NFL Scouting Combine and free agency within the next month, The Athletic’s NFL staff identifies the biggest need for every NFL team this offseason and how each may go about filling it.
Arizona Cardinals
Position of greatest need: Defensive line
The way the Cardinals finished the season, and most especially their blowout loss to the Rams in the wild-card round in the playoffs, highlighted how many areas of the team need improvement this offseason, from offensive line to receiver and tight end depth to multiple spots on the defense.
But after finishing the season ranked 24th in total pressures, per Pro Football Focus, and with veteran edge rusher Chandler Jones set to hit free agency, defensive line must be a priority for Arizona this offseason. And they could use help at both edge rusher — a strength of the 2022 draft class — and on the interior of the line, because though J.J. Watt was able to return for the postseason, Arizona needs a long-term anchor for the defensive line. — Lindsay Jones
Atlanta Falcons
Position of greatest need: Pass rusher
The Falcons had 17 sacks last season, which was 12 fewer than the next worst team and tied for the fewest they have had since the NFL began tracking the statistic in 1982. The Steelers’ T.J. Watt and the Bears’ Robert Quinn both had more sacks last season than the Falcons had as a team. First-year defensive coordinator Dean Pees stressed all season that increasing pressure on the quarterback was vital for his defense. At the end of the season, he acknowledged that improvement was going to require additional personnel.
Pees coached Harold Landry in Tennessee in 2018 and 2019, and Landry could be hitting the free-agent market next month, making him an intriguing target. Atlanta also is expected to address pass rush early in the draft, perhaps as early as its first-round pick, No. 8. When you’re as bad as the Falcons were at rushing the quarterback, the fix requires several approaches. — Josh Kendall
Baltimore Ravens
Position of greatest need: Offensive tackle
You could go in a number of different directions here and make a solid case. Edge rusher, interior defensive line, center, safety and even cornerback all are prominent needs. But the uncertainty surrounding former All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley’s future, plus the organization’s lack of depth at the position, puts tackle on another level.
Stanley has played just one game in the past season and a half because of an ankle injury that has required two surgeries. Ja’Wuan James, a candidate to start at right tackle, has played in only three games in the past three years. Alejandro Villanueva seems likely to retire or get released. Patrick Mekari and Tyre Phillips are better suited to play inside or occupy the swing tackle role. The Ravens badly need a better contingency plan for Stanley than they had in 2021, and the draft is probably the best place to find it. Quality free-agent tackles will likely be too pricey for the cap-limited Ravens. — Jeff Zrebiec
Buffalo Bills
Position of greatest need: Boundary cornerback
The Bills have some retooling to do elsewhere, but no other position compares with what they must do at cornerback this offseason. Starter Levi Wallace is an unrestricted free agent, as is depth and special-teams player Siran Neal. On top of that, star cornerback Tre’Davious White is coming off a torn ACL in late November, and there’s no telling how it will affect his 2022 season. Besides White, the Bills have only Dane Jackson, nickel backup Cam Lewis and three practice squad players from last season.
If they don’t re-sign Wallace, at minimum, they need one new player to compete with Jackson to be the starter opposite White, and depth on top of that. And if they get a bad report on White’s return trajectory, they might need more. — Joe Buscaglia
Carolina Panthers
Position of greatest need: Quarterback
Stop us if you’ve heard this before: The Panthers are looking for a franchise quarterback, and owner David Tepper — the $15.8 billion hedge fund manager — is willing to take a big swing to find one. After the Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Darnold experiments failed, Matt Rhule needs to get this right if he wants to keep his job. The Panthers are expected to be among the teams interested in Deshaun Watson after engaging with Houston prior to the trade deadline. If Watson’s legal situation remains murky or he goes elsewhere, Carolina will do its due diligence on every other QB who could be available: Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins, Carson Wentz, even a potential wild card like Gardner Minshew.
The Panthers also have the No. 6 pick. So pairing Kenny Pickett (who originally committed to Rhule’s Temple program) or Malik Willis with Darnold — if the Panthers can’t find a taker for his $18.9 million salary — could also be an option. — Joe Person
Chicago Bears
Position of greatest need: Wide receiver
Fixing the offensive line will be a priority for new Bears general manager Ryan Poles. Overhauling the personnel is one thing. Poles also wants a new, nasty attitude up front. But that will be a yearly process for Poles, a former offensive lineman. The Bears’ selections of Teven Jenkins (second round) and Larry Borom (fifth round) in last year’s draft also provide him with two young players to start his evaluations.
Quarterback Justin Fields needs better protection, but he also needs better receivers to target. The only receivers the Bears have under contract for the 2022 season are Darnell Mooney, Dazz Newsome, Nsimba Walker and Isaiah Coulter. Mooney is the only returning starter. Newsome, a 2021 sixth-round pick, made only two catches for 23 yards as a rookie. Walker and Coulter signed future/reserve contracts. Allen Robinson played the 2021 season on the franchise tag. Getting away from the Bears is the best move for him. — Adam Jahns
Cincinnati Bengals
Position of greatest need: Any and all offensive linemen
You don’t need me to tell you this. Everyone knows the offensive line is the Bengals’ biggest need. Jonah Williams will be back (but not guaranteed to be left tackle). That’s about all the guarantees that exist for a group that has free agents across the board and is coming off long stretches of poor play, especially in the playoffs when Joe Burrow was sacked 19 times.
Center Trey Hopkins is a cut candidate (which would save $6M against the cap), and guard Quinton Spain and right tackle Riley Reiff are free agents. The Bengals should eventually have more than $70M to spend. Every starting-level offensive lineman is on the radar, with a focus on proven free agents over draft picks. — Paul Dehner Jr.
Cleveland Browns
Position of greatest need: Defensive line
The biggest question of the offseason is at quarterback, and even if Baker Mayfield keeps his job for 2022 the pass offense will have new players in key roles.
But the Browns’ most pressing needs are on the defensive line, where they need two new starting defensive tackles and have to add to the pass-rush group even if they re-sign Jadeveon Clowney. Malik McDowell is almost certainly out of the Browns’ plans after a January arrest, and Malik Jackson is headed to free agency. The Browns will use both the draft and free agency to boost the line group and hope they can again pair Clowney with Myles Garrett as the foundation. Maybe the best way to close the gap on the AFC’s best quarterbacks is to again put together a defense capable of hurrying and frustrating them. — Zac Jackson
Dallas Cowboys
Position of greatest need: Pass rusher
With how disappointing the Cowboys’ offensive line play was in 2021, an interior lineman could be argued here. If Dallas parts ways with WR Amari Cooper and loses TE Dalton Schultz in free agency, a pass catcher makes a lot of sense, too.
But the Cowboys’ biggest need is pass rusher. They’re unlikely to have DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory as their starting defensive ends again next season. Lawrence might be a salary cap casualty. Gregory could land a better offer from another team on the open market. One of the two will likely be back. That leaves a starting edge rusher spot wide open, and that position holds more value than any of their other defensive needs. Standout LB/DE Micah Parsons can obviously help in that area, but defensive coordinator Dan Quinn would prefer to keep him in a similar role as last season, lining up all over the defense.
The most likely way the Cowboys fill this need will be in the draft, and it could come as early as the 24th overall pick. Florida State’s Jermaine Johnson or Purdue’s George Karlaftis could still be available in that range. — Jon Machota
Denver Broncos
Position of greatest need: Quarterback
This answer has been the same since Peyton Manning’s tear-stained retirement press conference on March 7, 2016. During the six seasons since, an astonishing 11 different players have started at quarterback for the Broncos. Only one, Trevor Siemian, started for more than one season. In fact, the Broncos have had a different Week 1 starter in each of the past five seasons — and a sixth is likely on the way.
General manager George Paton and new head coach Nathaniel Hackett won’t turn up their noses at any opportunity to improve the play at quarterback, which can be charitably described as inconsistent. The top choice would be Aaron Rodgers. If the back-to-back MVP decides he wants to leave Green Bay to pursue a winning final chapter of his career elsewhere, the Broncos will try to elbow their way to the front of the bidding battle. The fit, with Hackett having served as Rodgers’ offensive coordinator the past three seasons, would be obvious, and the Broncos have ample draft picks and young players to offer in a blockbuster trade. Other veteran options like Jimmy Garoppolo and Kirk Cousins, both of whom would fit in Hackett’s offensive scheme, could be fallback trade candidates.
The Broncos also hold the No. 9 pick in April’s draft — and five selections in the top 96 overall — making the first-round selection of a quarterback a real possibility if a trade doesn’t materialize. — Nick Kosmider
Detroit Lions
Position of greatest need: Safety
The Lions have a big decision to make on safety Tracy Walker, who’s set to be a free agent off a career-high 108 tackles. In any case, general manager Brad Holmes probably needs to find two safeties capable of starting — maybe three, if Walker exits. There is not a more important position to defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn’s scheme. And the Lions could turn their attention to Glenn’s former team, New Orleans, for a fix. Both Marcus Williams and hybrid DB P.J. Williams will be appealing here.
The draft offers a ton of safety depth, too, starting as high as the top five with Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton. Detroit just coached several intriguing safety prospects at the Senior Bowl, with Baylor’s Jalen Pitre a standout among them. — Chris Burke
Green Bay Packers
Position of greatest need: Tight end
Robert Tonyan tied Travis Kelce two seasons ago for most touchdown catches among tight ends with 11. A prominent pass-catching weapon in Matt LaFleur’s offense, Tonyan tore his ACL in a Week 8 win against the Cardinals this season and is set to hit unrestricted free agency in March. But the Packers are about $50.8 million over the cap, according to overthecap.com, the second-worst cap situation in the NFL. They may not be able to afford Tonyan given the need to address the financial situations of Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, De’Vondre Campbell and others first.
The Packers severely missed a pass-catching threat at tight end for the second half of the season, especially with slot receiver Randall Cobb missing the last five and a half games of the regular season after suffering a core muscle injury right before halftime against the Rams in Week 12. The most likely path to filling the position is through the draft. Keep an eye on Ohio State tight end Jeremy Ruckert, who our Dane Brugler pinned to the Packers in the second round of his latest mock draft. — Matt Schneidman
Houston Texans
Position of greatest need: Offensive line
No individual position along the line is highlighted here because this entire position group is in flux. Week 1 starters Laremy Tunsil, Max Scharping, Tytus Howard and Marcus Cannon are all on the roster for next season, but odds are they won’t all be Week 1 starters again when the 2022 season kicks off.
Scharping, a 2019 second-round pick, has been in and out of the lineup for the past two seasons. Cannon, 33, started four games at right tackle and could be a cap casualty. Howard struggled after moving to left guard, making picking up his fifth-year option this offseason — a move that would keep him on the team through 2023 — tough to swallow. And Tunsil, the team’s star left tackle, played just five games before shutting down for the season following thumb surgery, raising speculation the Texans are preserving their best trade chip not named Deshaun Watson.
Even if the Texans hold onto Tunsil, who is just 27 and under contract for two more years, major changes are needed along the line. The Texans ranked 27th in ESPN’s pass block win rate, which measures how often a team holds its blocks for at least 2.5 seconds. And for the second consecutive year, Houston finished last in rushing DVOA. The Texans need to upgrade at running back, too, but that will only do so much if the Texans once again rank last in yards before contact per carry, as they did in 2021.
Luckily for the Texans, there are multiple offensive linemen considered worthy of being top-three picks in this year’s draft. NC State’s Ikem Ekwonu, Alabama’s Evan Neal and Mississippi State’s Charles Cross could all be options. Depending on where the Texans decide to play Howard next season, those prospects could play either tackle or guard. — Aaron Reiss
Indianapolis Colts
Position of greatest need: Quarterback/wide receiver
For the third consecutive offseason, the Colts are facing a quarterback question, a problem they thought they had solved last spring by trading for Carson Wentz. But his dismal play down the stretch gave the team pause about moving forward with him, adding to a list of needs that look a whole lot like last year’s: wide receiver, tight end and left tackle. The Colts’ pass game regressed sharply down the stretch, and it became obvious that no matter who is under center in 2022 — whether it’s Wentz or someone else — the weapons around him need to be better. — Zak Keefer
Jacksonville Jaguars
Position of greatest need: Pretty much everything but QB
The Jaguars ranked last in the NFL in opponent completion percentage and No. 27 in sacks, so an edge rusher at the top of the draft (Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson or Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux) would make sense if the franchise didn’t already have two first-round edge-rushers (Josh Allen and K’Lavon Chaisson) under contract.
The other potential option is to let left tackle Cam Robinson leave as a free agent — rather than franchise tagging him for a second consecutive season — and selecting a tackle (N.C. State’s Ickey Ekwonu, Alabama’s Evan Neal or Mississippi State’s Charles Cross, for example). Jacksonville has Jawaan Taylor under contract for one more year, and the Jaguars like the potential of 2021 second-rounder Walker Little.
Whether through the draft or free agency, the Jaguars need to find receivers who can get open. QB Trevor Lawrence struggled at times as a rookie, but often that was because everyone was covered. — Andy Staples
Kansas City Chiefs
Position of greatest need: Defensive line
Last season, the Chiefs struggled to put the opposing quarterback onto the turf. Their defense ranked 29th in the league in collecting just 31 sacks. The issue is even more glaring when the unit had just two linemen, Chris Jones and Frank Clark, recorded more than three sacks. Clark, though, could be released within the next month to clear more salary cap space so that the Chiefs can acquire a better pass rusher in free agency. The team would also be wise to use a draft pick to add another defensive lineman. The Chiefs should be motivated to reload their defensive line because one embarrassing reason they fell to the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game was that Joe Burrow was sacked only once. — Nate Taylor
Las Vegas Raiders
Position of greatest need: Offensive guard/offensive tackle
The Raiders have a new coach in Josh McDaniels and new general manager in Dave Ziegler, and there’s a chance they move on from Derek Carr if they aren’t willing to commit to him long term. That would immediately make quarterback the biggest need but, given Carr under contract for 2022 and in place to start for now, the focus shifts to the offensive line.
The Raiders traded Rodney Hudson, Gabe Jackson and Trent Brown prior to last season and had lost Denzelle Good and Richie Incognito by the end of the first week of the season, which left their offensive line in a state of disarray for most of the year. Alex Leatherwood was drafted in the first round to play right tackle last year but got moved to right guard because of injury. If he’s kept at guard, the Raiders will need an answer at right tackle. If he’s moved back to right tackle, they’ll need a new starting guard.
There are multiple first-round caliber offensive linemen who fit their needs and could still be on the board when they pick 22nd overall such as Texas A&M’s Kenyon Green and Boston College’s Zion Johnson. If they want someone more proven, there are veterans in free agency such as Jets tackle Morgan Moses or Rams guard Austin Corbett who shouldn’t break the bank. — Tashan Reed
Los Angeles Chargers
Position of greatest need: Defensive line
The Chargers could not stop the run with any level of consistency in 2021, and that was largely because of poor play from their defensive front. They allowed the third-most rushing yards of any team in the league last season and finished 28th in rush defense EPA, according to TruMedia.
The Chargers’ failure to stop the run filtered into all aspects of their defense. Primarily, opponents were able to create way too many third-and-manageable situations. The Chargers ranked 24th in opposing average distance to first on third downs, according to TruMedia, and they finished last in third-down defense. The Chargers also allowed 144 first downs on rushes in 2021, tied for the most in the league.
They need a dramatic influx of talent on their defensive line to improve the run defense, especially with three of their top four defensive linemen — Justin Jones, Linval Joseph and Christian Covington — set to hit free agency. After the season, head coach Brandon Staley said bolstering the defensive line would be at “the center of our thought process moving forward.” — Daniel Popper
Los Angeles Rams
Position of greatest need: Left tackle
Andrew Whitworth, the Rams’ stalwart left tackle since they signed him in 2017 (and the Walter Payton Man of the Year winner this season), has spoken often about retirement, and it seems likely that this would be the year for him to actually do it, following a Super Bowl victory. Reserve left tackle Joe Noteboom is a pending free agent. The Rams should try to re-sign Noteboom, but there’s no telling what his market will be considering his excellent play when he has filled in for Whitworth at various times in the last two years (and the fact that he’s only 26, with relatively little wear-and-tear on his body).
If the Rams can’t retain Noteboom, they may have to thrust rookie undrafted free agent Alaric Jackson into the mix, which would be a tough learning curve despite Jackson’s clear potential. — Jourdan Rodrigue
Miami Dolphins
Position of greatest need: Offensive line
The Dolphins allowed pressure on 37.2% of all pass plays this season, which ranked 26th league-wide. And that was with Tua Tagovailoa getting rid of the ball in 2.52 seconds — the third-quickest time of any starter.
As of this writing, the Dolphins have the most cap space in the NFL. They need to spend that money on their offensive line to give new coach Mike McDaniel and Tagovailoa a chance to succeed. One player to keep an eye on: Free-agent guard Laken Tomlinson. He has not missed a game over the past four seasons and made the Pro Bowl in 2021. Plus, he and McDaniel will know each other well from their time together in San Francisco. The Dolphins need more than one fix, but Tomlinson would make a lot of sense for them. — Sheil Kapadia
Minnesota Vikings
Position of greatest need: Cornerback
The Vikings have something on the order of eight or so needs, but the clear selection is at the position where they need the most bodies. Though the new coaching staff seems to be on board with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, they have other positions they need to fill out. None of the cornerbacks who started the 2021 season are under contract, and the Vikings don’t seem to trust Cameron Dantzler, either. They will likely pursue a corner in free agency in addition to the draft, which is relatively rich at the position.
On top of that, they will attempt to find solutions along the interior offensive line, edge rusher, linebacker and possibly safety and even receiver — assuming they aren’t looking for a long-term solution at quarterback. — Arif Hasan
New England Patriots
Position of greatest need: Defense
This isn’t going to be a quick fix. The Patriots made significant strides last season in free agency, but they were humbled twice by the Bills in the final month of the season, signifying just how much room there is to make up on the two-time division champs. It needs to happen organically through multiple drafts, and they’ve made recent progress with defensive tackle Christian Barmore, safety Kyle Dugger and outside linebacker Josh Uche.
They need a playmaking linebacker, perhaps with Nakobe Dean in the first round. The Patriots also need to be prepared to usher in a new generation with Dont’a Hightower, Devin McCourty, J.C. Jackson and Jamie Collins set for free agency. There’s a lot of work to be done. It also doesn’t get any easier knowing they probably need to draft a big hitter at wide receiver and a long-term solution at offensive tackle — two positions that typically require success at the top of the draft. — Jeff Howe
New Orleans Saints
Position of greatest need: Quarterback
The Saints struggled to find their footing at quarterback last year after the retirement of Drew Brees, starting four quarterbacks because of injuries and COVID-19. Taysom Hill, who is rehabbing a Lisfranc injury, is not the answer, nor is Trevor Siemian. The Saints don’t pick until 18th in the draft and still need a wide receiver. That means it’s more likely they either re-sign Jameis Winston or address the position via free agency or the draft. But considering they need to shed more than $70 million in salary to get under the cap for 2022, there aren’t any easy answers at this particular position. — Katherine Terrell
New York Giants
Position of greatest need: Offensive line
The Giants have been searching for offensive line upgrades for the past decade. They’ll need to keep swinging with new general manager Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll. The Giants don’t have enough cap space to sign any top linemen, so they’ll need to fill these holes in the draft. Fortunately, the Giants have a pair of top-10 picks and five selections in the first three rounds. It would be a surprise if the Giants don’t use the No. 5 or No. 7 pick on offensive tackle. The Giants should be able to land NC State’s Ikem Ekwonu, Alabama’s Evan Neal or Mississippi State’s Charles Cross to form a bookend with 2020 No. 4 pick Andrew Thomas. — Dan Duggan
New York Jets
Position of greatest need: Wide receiver
It’s tough to pick just one for the Jets. Luckily for them, their draft capital and available salary cap dollars should allow them to fill quite a few needs this offseason. A true No. 1, X receiver is likely atop the list because of the impact it would have across the offense. Adding one would instantly alleviate pressure on Zach Wilson, Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Mike Carter and the offensive line. There are some interesting options in the NFL Draft (Garrett Wilson, Treylon Burks), but the Jets’ best bet might be to call up the Falcons and see what it would cost to get Calvin Ridley. — Connor Hughes
Philadelphia Eagles
Position of greatest need: Defensive back
Based on the team’s priorities, defensive end will be No. 1 on this list. But if one’s judging needs by trying to fill spots on the depth, the Eagles have voids in the secondary considering starting safeties Rodney McLeod and Anthony Harris and cornerback Steve Nelson are all free agents. The Eagles have internal options for those spots, but it’s more likely they’ll add reinforcements in free agency and the draft.
Sheil Kapadia’s list of the top 75 free agents includes eight safeties, and the Eagles could be active for second-tier options such as Justin Reid or Jordan Whitehead if they’re priced out of the top safeties. They’re more likely to address cornerback in the draft, where Cincinnati’s Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner and Clemson’s Andrew Booth Jr. are potential options with one of the Eagles’ three picks in the teens. Five quarterbacks had completion percentages of at least 80% against the Eagles last season, and an improved secondary will help their pass defense. But an improved pass rush will be even important, so look for the Eagles to prioritize edge rusher with one of their first-round picks. — Zach Berman
Pittsburgh Steelers
Position of greatest need: Offensive line
And you thought I was going to say quarterback. Oh, that’s on the list, for sure, but when you frame it as their greatest need, anywhere along the offensive line trumps the quarterback position. The Steelers do have Mason Rudolph, which many believe isn’t much, but he is a guy who has been in the organization for four years and has 10 starts (5-4-1) under his belt.
The offensive line needs talent almost across the board even though they used third- and fourth-round picks on a center and a tackle a year ago. Dan Moore worked out at tackle; Kendrick Green not so much at center. They were one of the worst offensive lines in the league again and now have to basically start over with a new offensive line coach and at least two new starters. The right tackle spot is a mess, and Trai Turner was a one-year stop gap at right guard.
Even though the Steelers haven’t taken an offensive tackle in the first round in more than 25 years, it is a position that they need to really contemplate drafting that early this year. If not, then quarterback, defensive line, cornerback, safety and inside linebacker is all free game. — Mark Kaboly
San Francisco 49ers
Position of greatest need: Guard
The team’s biggest offseason priority is re-signing left guard Laken Tomlinson, who’s set to become a free agent in March. Doing so would continue the chemistry he and Trent Williams have formed on the left side, would bring back the team’s most durable player and, most important, would provide an element of stability for inexperienced quarterback Trey Lance. Miss out on Tomlinson and the team likely would have to bring in a veteran such as Austin Corbett — which would weaken the Rams — or cheaper free-agent guards like the Buccaneers’ Alex Cappa or the Jaguars’ Andrew Norwell.
It’s possible the 49ers could tap into their own, young depth at guard. But players like Aaron Banks, Jaylon Moore, Colton McKivitz and Daniel Brunskill ought to spend the offseason duking it out for starting right guard, not for right and left guard. — Matt Barrows
Seattle Seahawks
Position of greatest need: Offensive line
This is Seattle’s position of greatest need every offseason, honestly. Seattle has never had an elite pass-blocking unit in the 10 years Russell Wilson has been the quarterback, which is crazy to think about considering how dynamic he’s been in that stretch. Three of Seattle’s five starting offensive linemen will be free agents, including both tackles. Doesn’t matter if reinforcements come via the draft, free agency, trade or the cast of All American. Seattle just needs help up front. — Michael-Shawn Dugar
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Position of greatest need: Quarterback
A retirement like Tom Brady’s leaves an impossibly large void to fill. The Bucs could re-sign veteran backup Blaine Gabbert or turn to last year’s second-round pick, Kyle Trask, but they’ve said they’ll evaluate all the outside options, including free agency and trading for a top-tier passer. They don’t have a ton of salary-cap flexibility, but this is a defending division champ that hopes to continue the success Brady brought in the last two years. Focus less on big swings like Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson, but perhaps a more conservative upgrade like Teddy Bridgewater, or perhaps if he’s cut, Carson Wentz. — Greg Auman
Tennessee Titans
Position of greatest need: Tight end
A case can be made for two other positions to help the Titans “be great around” (in the words of Mike Vrabel) incumbent and suddenly embattled quarterback Ryan Tannehill, receiver and offensive line. The Titans should address both, and must determine if they’re going to keep paying Taylor Lewan and Rodger Saffold huge salaries or if they must get more cost-effective up front.
Tannehill needs a vertical threat on the outside. But tight end was the glaringly unaddressed position last offseason, and it was a glaring weakness in 2021. There are plenty of options in the draft, though no awe-inspiring prospects, but the free agent crop is intriguing. Robert Tonyan, David Njoku, Gerald Everett? If the Titans are going to go after a proven player at the position, they have to find some space first. Just keeping free agent OLB Harold Landry is going to require some cap massage. — Joe Rexrode
Washington Commanders
Position of greatest need: Quarterback
Head coach Ron Rivera spent the past month telling everyone who would listen that Washington is in the market for a passer upgrade. Taylor Heinicke exceeded any reasonable expectations last season, but his lack of size and arm strength limits the team’s offensive ceiling. Rivera tried landing Matthew Stafford last season and is expected to make an aggressive run at any headliner who comes available.
He can promote a solid offensive line and playmakers like Terry McLaurin. We’ll see if relentless negative off-the-field headlines involving owner Dan Snyder spooks those stars. The Commanders hold the 11th pick in a draft lacking obvious upside talent. They need to find a solution somehow, someway. — Ben Standig
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